|
It is reassuring to predict
the future. The only problem is, one cannot predict the future,
at least not with very much accuracy. This fact however has not
stopped people from trying. But if one cannot predict the future
any great accuracy why do they bother? The answer it seems that
everyone feels better for it.
Back in 1995 The Foresight
Programme published its first attempt at gazing into manufacturing
industry's future 20 years hence, in the year 2015. The orientation
of the report was very much centred on business processes - not
surprising really given that at the time business process re-engineering
was the fad of the day. The problem is that in 2015 any successful
firm would be taking the business process approach as the norm.
What we all would like to know is, what in 2015 will be the flavour
of the day? Foresight should not be about reporting on current
issues and then extrapolating.
On the technology side the
1995 report did not really provide much help. How could it? Some
of the technologies that will be in use in 2015 probably have
not yet been invented! Nevertheless, this fact did not stop the
Foresight Panel trying to make predictions. Did they do a good
job? Well, let us take IT as an example. IT gets a mention, along
with networks and communication technologies, of course. But
look for Internet, World Wide Web, e-business and e-commerce
and you will look in vane.
Does this matter. Well yes
it does. Firstly, at the time the Foresight Panel were working
on this report, the Internet was already becoming big news in
the USA - how did they miss this? Second, one might say that
they mentioned networks and the Internet is a network. But the
point about the Internet is that it is a very cheap network that
is easy to connect to. These are really big and important points
- factors which are driving the uptake of a wired world and leading
to changes in business models, opening up new opportunities,
and so on. These things that were not foreseen in the 1995 Foresight
report. QED.
So did the Foresight Panel
in 2000 make a better job? It seems not, although they did avoid
making predictions, or so it seems. The report did of course
mention perennial problems and wish lists. The need for a skilled
and flexible workforce is raised (yet again!). But this is an
on-going problem, and it does not take a Foresight Panel or study
to point out the continuing need to address education and training.
Logistical infrastructure also gets a mention. But the problems
of ageing and over stretched logistical infrastructure are already
with us as any one who uses the railways and the road networks
will testify.
Environment, as one would expect,
also gets a mention. But its all about improved efficiency and
reduced emissions, the assumption being that current mass consumption
based business models will still be viable in 2020. Mass customisation,
another old bone that people keep gnawing away at, is also mentioned.
But no mention here of where mass customisation might actually
be useful or worthwhile or even worth paying extra for. Of course,
if ones interpretation of mass customisation is actually assemble-to-order
or batch sizes of one in mass production industries, then that
is a different story. This is, however, is current issue, subject
no doubt to further developments and improvements over the coming
years. Hardly radical stuff though.
In 1970 it is highly likely
that if Foresight Panel had published a report, it would have
foreseen manufacturing in 1990 as a world of mass production.
Lean production would not have even got a mention. Nor would
new markets such as mobile phones, personal computers, set-top
boxes and a long list of products that had not even been dreamt
of at that time. This highlights the problem and futility of
Foresight. Foresight methods tend to be oriented towards extrapolating
current conditions and trends. This ignores one important point
- innovation.
Innovation creates discontinuities
and these create market opportunities. They lead to new products
and markets and overturn or radically revise business models.
The only serious way to deal with this situation is not to try
and predict the future, but to develop the enterprise capabilities
to quickly adapt to these sorts of structural changes and to
strategically manage the resulting uncertainties, which can often
be very significant. This sort of capability is fundamental and
hard to achieve. That makes it a source of sustainable competitive
advantage and hence more worthwhile that Foresight Studies.
- Phone: +44 1625 619313
- Email contact:
enquire41@cheshirehenbury.com
|