- Chapter 2
- The Future of European
Manufacturing: Driven by Globalisation or Global Warming?
- Paul T Kidd
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- Introduction
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- In the year 2035, European
manufacturing industry will have declined to the point where
it is no longer a significant contributor to the European economy!
Why such a gloomy prediction? Is it because European manufacturing
will be off-shored to China and other emerging economies in Asia?
Or is it because no one will want to work in manufacturing, because
of its (outdated) image as consisting largely of manual and dirty
jobs? Or perhaps it is because European manufacturing industry
does not have what it takes to compete in global markets? Certainly
these are all issues which threaten to undermine and weaken European
manufacturing capabilities. These however, are not the main explanations
for predicting the demise of manufacturing in Europe by 2035.
The reason is much subtler.
It is precisely because of the attention that is being paid to
the above three matters that increases the risk of failure! Exploitation
of global opportunities, transformation of the industry to knowledge
intensive work, and achieving competitiveness in the face of
global competition: these are all very important topics, but
they are normally considered within the mindset of globalisation
of the traditional industrial era system of production. This
is what is wrong. Rather than globalisation being the driver
and the logic for the future of manufacturing, based on a system
of production as it is at the beginning of the 21st century,
global warming is the main issue. This should be driving the
development of a new system of production; one that is compatible
with a low carbon economy, and one that is capable of revitalising
the sector.
Global warming caused by an increase of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, is however not the only potentially crippling issue
impacting the future of manufacturing in Europe. Europe also
has an addiction to non-renewable fossil fuels and an insatiable
appetite for energy. Both of these issues have direct bearing
on manufacturing futures. Thus, global warming, fossil fuel depletion,
and increasing energy consumption; these are the main factors
that will shape the future of manufacturing in Europe. Other
matters seem to pail into insignificance when compared to these
daunting problems. However, this not evident from the content
of most manufacturing foresight, futures, roadmapping and visioning
activities, even those published in a time when the destructive
and serious nature of global warming have become much clearer.
That this is so however, is not very surprising, for most such
studies only make passing reference to resource limitations,
the need to improve environmental performance, and the conflict
between growth and the environment [1]. Few studies analyse environmental
problems in depth, or identify those features of the industrial
era system of production that are an inherent source of environmental
damage. Nor do such studies seek to identify priorities among
the diffuse range of environmental challenges. This generally
is the case both in Europe and in the United States.
Europe, and the rest of the industrialised world, as well as
the industrialising nations, are fast approaching one of those
decision points, a fork in the road so to speak, a moment in
time, upon which the future of humanity will turn. Along one
way the path is lined with the familiar. It is the path well
trodden, of incremental changes that will not adequately address
energy-related environmental concerns. This is the road that
will ultimately lead to a crisis in manufacturing because it
is founded on playing the global competitiveness game, on terms
that are largely determined outside of Europe. This is the route
to manufacturing decline and economic insignificance for the
industry in Europe by the year 2035. The same old problems will
persist, and faced with growing environmental regulation in Europe,
the outcome is likely to be the demise of European manufacturing.
Along the other path however, the way in uncharted and unclear
and the surrounding territory alien. This road leads to a new
system of production that is inherently low carbon emitting and
low energy consuming. This is way froward and now is the time
to begin to address this unfamiliar terrain, and to explore a
new and different future for European manufacturing, one that
might offer some hope that European manufacturing will still
be prosperous and economically significant in 2035.
So what could European manufacturing industry look like in 2035
if global warming and energy-related matters were positioned
as the prime drivers for the sector's future? Before providing
a glimpse of a possible answer to this question, an overview
of the energy-related circumstances that prevail in 2006 is necessary
to highlight the seriousness of the problems that will have to
be addressed. -
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